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Mincore

Mining Brief - October 19, 2023

1) Newmont's acquisition of Newcrest is on track to close in early November, having obtained all necessary approvals. The scheme of arrangement, now legally effective under Australian law, was approved by Newcrest's shareholders. Newmont CEO Tom Palmer expressed enthusiasm for the deal, aiming to create a premier gold and copper company by consolidating tier 1 assets in favorable mining locations. Once completed, the merged entity will operate 10 tier 1 assets and is expected to achieve pre-tax synergies of $500 million annually within the first 24 months. Furthermore, the company aims for at least $2 billion in cash improvements through portfolio optimization in the initial two years after closing. Mr. Palmer appreciated the confidence shown by both Newcrest's and Newmont's shareholders in their value- focused strategy, establishing operating model, and experienced management team. This acquisition represents a significant step in their quest to become a global leader in the gold and copper mining industry.


2) BHP CEO Mike Henry has ruled out the acquisition of Canadian fertilizer giant Nutrien, shifting the company's focus on building its own potash business. In 2010, BHP's attempt to purchase Potash Corp of Saskatchewan, Nutrien's predecessor, was thawed by the Canadian government. Talks with Nutrien in 2021 for a possible joint venture on the Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan faltered, leading BHP to undertake the $7.5 billion project on their own, with production scheduled to start in 2026. A second phase is under consideration that would start operation in 2029. Mr. Henry indicated that the rationale for a BHP-Nutrien partnership has diminished, stating "that ship has sailed." Despite the volatile potash market, Mr. Henry is optimistic about long-term growth due to population expansion, dietary changes, and increased pressure on arable land.

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