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1) The forecasted copper surplus anticipated for 2024 has abruptly evaporated, leading to unexpected market shifts. Initially expected to experience an ample surplus due to new mining projects worldwide, the industry now faces significant supply vulnerabilities. Factors such as political and social opposition, operational difficulties, and recent setbacks in leading mining operations have collectively removed around 600,000 tons of anticipated copper supply, potentially shifting the market from an anticipated surplus to a balance or even a deficit. These disruptions, including a major copper mine in Panama following protests and political disputes, alongside production slashes by prominent miners like Anglo American, have caught investors off guard. Anglo's announcement to reduce copper production by about 200,000 tons next year and further cuts in 2025, significantly impacts global supply. Goldman Sachs and Jefferies both anticipate sibstantial deficits next year, emphasizing the tightening of the copper market due to these supply disruptions. Despite concerns about China's economic policy and the absence of siginificant stimulus measures, the copper market has seen fluctuations. Live copper inventories, which surged earlier in the year, have now retreated for three consecutive weeks, indicating an evolving market landscape. This upheaval in the copper market, marked by supply disruptions and potential deficits, signifies a possible shift toward a new copper cycle, as suggested by analysts. THe sudden shifts in anticipated supply have reshaped expectations, emphasizing the growing significance of mining companies in facilitating the global shift towards green energy and decarbonization.
2) The University of Munster's research indicates that China is poised to be the first to fulfill its demand for essential battery raw materials - lithium, cobalt, and nickel - through recycling. Europe is expected to follow, arriving in second place, while the US will likely come in third. Their study predicts that China could achieve self-sufficiency in recycling for primary lithium for electric vehicles by 2059, surpassing Europe and the US, where this is estimated to occur by 2070. Regarding cobalt, China's recycling efforts may meet its needs as early as 2045, with Europe and the US reaching this milestone in 2052 abd 2056, respectively. For nickel, China could potentially achieve demand satisfaction through recycling by 2046, followed by Europe in 2058 abd tge US from 2064 and onwards. The study's unique aspect is determining the "break-even point," where supply and demand for recycled raw materials align. It highlights that accelerated adoption of electric vehicles, as discussed in the EU, could expedite the availability of sufficient batteries for recycling, hastening the equilibrium point.